| Symbol | Name | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCZ26 | Corn | 483.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 487.50 | ▲ +4.50 | 222,470 | 2026-07-23 |
| ZSX26 | Soybean | 1,237.00 | 1,249.50 | 1,235.50 | 1,243.75 | ▲ +6.75 | 145,869 | 2026-07-23 |
| ZWU26 | Wheat | 705.50 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 696.25 | ▼ -9.25 | 78,187 | 2026-07-23 |
As of July 16, U.S. exporters had sold 7.6 mmt (300 mbu) of corn for 2026/27 shipment, a five-year high for the date. However, that covers 9.3% of USDA's full-year forecast of 3.2 bbu, a half-percent below the year-ago pace. Will higher prices interfere with the massive export outlook?
Karen Braun
The past several days in West Central Indiana, temperatures and humidity have been ideal for pollination and grain fill. Next week is a different story, with high heat expected to return and limited opportunity for significant rainfall. This is the time of year when corn yield potential is heavily dependent on temperature and precipitation. Next week's forecast does not look very positive for corn in my area. Farmers have been busy cleaning bins, as the corn and bean rally have come at a very good time to help motivate grain movement.
Chuck Shelby
Export demand extends December Corn's climb to a fresh two month high
Thursday's USDA Weekly Export Sales handed the bulls fresh support, with new crop corn bookings for 2026/27 more than doubling from the prior week to 27.6 million bushels, while old crop added 13.1 million. Shipments remain the demand engine, with marketing year corn inspections running about 25 percent ahead of last year. Bears counter that ample new crop supply prospects and USDA's first survey based yield in the August WASDE could cap the climb. Monday's Crop Progress conditions are next.
December Corn pressed higher again Thursday, opening at 483.00. It proved a new high at 490.25 before settling at 487.50, up 2.75, the best close of this rally. Price holds well above the 18-day moving average at 460.35, with every major average reclaimed, though the smaller daily gain hints the run may be tiring. Daily RSI near 68 sits just shy of overbought, leaving the trade to weigh a push toward 500.00 against a pause to consolidate the sharp advance.
Dan Hussey
Soybeans extend their gains on weather and exports
Beans ended 4.5-5.5 cents up in most contracts. A flash sale to China and a warmer, drier forecast added to the cause. USDA said China confirmed a sale of 126KT for new crop, bringing new crop sales to a 4-year high. Demand and weather are keeping prices elevated, but bean oil and meal were lower yesterday in spite of a sharply higher crude oil market. Could beans be ready for a pull back? There has been some producer selling of new crop beans at these levels. Most places you can get at least $12 out of the field. Our farm sold some to take advantage of this rally and deal with what we can't store on farm.
November came within a 1/2 cent of the $12.50 mark. The RSI is sitting at 69, getting into the upper end of its range for overbought and potentially looking like a sell off at anytime. Gap still not filled at 12.07 downside target.
Sherman Newlin
Day 3 HRS tour final. Kerch Strait quiet, mostly closed. Funds possibly flat.
Chicago wheat for September traded as high as 710.25 overnight before trading to a low of 693.00. The close at 696.25 was down 9.50. While Thursday's trade saw a lull in news regarding the conflict impacting the Black Sea and Kerch Strait, few expect a resolution soon. Export sales were reported Thursday at 290,016 metric tons for 2026/2027. Mexico and Taiwan were the biggest buyers. The Wheat Quality Council tour issued a final total estimate for HRS of 48 bushels per acre. Last year's estimate was 49, the five-year average is 45.8.
After estimates of 20,500 contracts purchased Wednesday, the funds may be nearly flat. Two things are possible if that is true. First, some of the fuel for the wheat fire--the fund short position--has been burned. Second, the funds made a hard and fast decision to get out of the way of this rally. Do they decide to get long? It is likely wheat sees back and fill price action for now.
Joe Nikruto
Anticipation of Friday's Cattle on Feed report
Futures staged a decent rally ahead of the Cattle on Feed report at 2:00 PM CT Friday afternoon. Expected: total on feed 102.2%, placements 98%, marketings 97%. Some are anticipating a bearish number, but how likely is this? Carcass weights are at 890 pounds—about 40 pounds heavier than a year ago, but 120 pounds lighter than six months ago—so marketings look very current. Feedlots are staying that way through the summer heat.
Some cash cattle developed today, mostly $232/$233 FOB. Rolling into October because there's more volume there now, October futures rose $2.17 to 221.37. September feeder cattle rose $3.65 to 339.65. Choice box beef was down $0.63 to 362.87. Select down $1.82 to 348.75. Feeder cattle index down $3.12 to 353.12. Lots of variation in feeder cattle prices in the sale barns over the last few days.
Charlie White
Energy and equities diverged sharply Thursday. September WTI crude exploded 5.36 higher to settle at 92.19, a fresh leg of a month long surge, after Houthi drones and missiles struck two Saudi oil tankers and stoked supply disruption fears. The front month settled in steep backwardation over October at 86.80 and pushed Daily RSI near 74.7, deep into overbought territory, with price well above the 18-day moving average at 76.33. Crude bulls lean on supply risk and backwardation, while bears flag an overbought tape and demand erosion if prices choke growth.
Stocks went the other way. The September E-mini S&P 500 fell 95.25 to 7445.00 and the September E-mini Nasdaq 100 dropped 560.50 to 28620.75, both closing back below their 18-day moving averages on the oil spike lifting yields and soft reactions to Alphabet and Tesla earnings hammering megacap tech. Equity bulls eye resilient earnings, bears are focusing on the inflation and valuation threat. Next Wednesday's EIA inventories, the July 28 to 29 FOMC decision, and a heavy week of megacap earnings headline the catalysts ahead.
Dan Hussey
The temperature is going to be cranked to the max over the weekend. Widespread daily high temperatures are expected to reach into the high 90°s to 100°F across most of the Great Plains. Temps will also run high over the weekend and into next week for the Eastern Corn Belt. There are fair chances of seeing some scattered rains through Monday that could bring some relief. Last week's run of the U.S. Drought Monitor had very minimal changes to drought scores across the county. The next run could show some changes after another week of minimal rains and high temperatures. Expect plenty of heat advisories across the country thanks to high humidity.
Jason Clapp
Karen Braun’s Market Context Newsletter provides data-driven market commentary that helps readers understand the “why & how” in whatever hot topics are driving the markets.
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