| Symbol | Name | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Volume | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCZ26 | Corn | 459.75 | 471.00 | 458.75 | 469.50 | ▲ +9.75 | 237,293 | 2026-07-15 |
| ZSX26 | Soybean | 1,191.00 | 1,203.25 | 1,184.75 | 1,201.75 | ▲ +10.75 | 132,757 | 2026-07-15 |
| ZWU26 | Wheat | 644.00 | 682.75 | 642.75 | 677.50 | ▲ +33.50 | 147,052 | 2026-07-15 |
End-June soybean oil stocks among NOPA members totaled 1.5 billion pounds, falling below all trade estimates for a second consecutive month. Stocks have quickly fallen to the low end of recent years after sitting at multi-year highs just a few months ago.
Karen Braun
We are in weather market season. It's been hot and dry this week with a high pressure ridge over the Midwest. Current models are calling for cooler weather, but if the forecast brings back the heat, corn could find more strength.
Strategy: Buying the August short dated 470 call for 4 cents (plus fees).
This is a short dated strategy based on December futures. It expires on 7/24. If Dec corn is trading above $4.70 on 7/24, this strategy would execute and turn into a long December corn future at a price of 4.70. It can also be exited any time before expiration. It's intended as a weather market re-ownership strategy, or as a speculative trade.
Speak with your Zaner professional to discuss what action might be best for you.
Ted Seifried
Eastern Iowa: This is the perfect time of year. Field work is done for the moment, so in the evenings, I grab a couple beverages and become a "road farmer." The crops look excellent from the road. The beans are gaining size and the corn is about half-tasselled. It won’t be long before it’s "World War III" again with all the airplanes and helicopters out spraying fungicide.
I always tell myself that some days are good for the crops and some are good for the livestock. Unfortunately, this has not been good livestock weather; the big cattle and hogs are really struggling, and it looks like we won’t get any relief until the end of next week.
Charlie White
Corn futures continue to show strength in July
On Wednesday, corn futures continued their July rally following strength in wheat trade after an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war. Reports from across the Corn Belt indicate that the majority of the crop is weathering this week's heat well. Timely rains will be necessary from here on out as the majority of the crop starts its reproductive phase.
It feels like corn futures have once again arrived at a pivotal point for trade direction the rest of the summer. December futures are now trading just over the 50% retracement level from the summer sell-off and among longer term moving averages. A convincing close over $4.70 could open the door for a move back to old highs. Failure to maintain momentum next week might lead futures to fall back to $4.50 or lower. The 40 cent bounce this month has provided opportunity for those with old crop bushels to get grain bins cleaned out.
Jason Clapp
Beans rally without China, against moderating forecast. NOPA, technicals do heavy lifting.
Wednesday, lower day session open brought November beans down to 1184 3/4. Unable to hold the lower price level, beans rallied and traded as high as 1203 1/4, closing at 1201 3/4, up 10 3/4 on the day. Another day of no Chinese flash sales. Weather forecast calls for more moderate temps and increased chances for precipitation around the "ring of fire" ridge pattern toward the end of the month. NOPA crush came in at 214.34 million bushels vs estimates of 203.99. Bean oil stocks down to 1.501 billion pounds vs expectations of 1.653 highlighting continued and increasing production of bio-fuel. Export sales estimates 100,000 to 500,000 old crop. For new crop, 900,000 to 1.7 million metric tons.
Technically, the bears have their backs against the wall. 1207 1/2 and 1214'0 are what remains of the head and shoulders pattern. November has traded as high as 1207 1/4 and closed over 1200'0 on Wednesday. Outside day up is positive. 18-day moving average is back at 1169 1/2.
Joe Nikruto
Big volume rally. Funds exit. Extent and duration of export disruption discussed.
Wednesday, September Chicago wheat traded as high as 682 3/4, closing at 677 1/2, up 32 1/4. Chicago futures followed French markets higher. Traders, specifically short funds, are beginning to grasp the potential for lasting impact from this latest round of hostility between Ukraine and Russia. Strikes on Russian vessels have restricted shipping lanes. Wire services report importing countries hunting for non-Russian origins, and Russian shippers not buying wheat from farmers fearing storage facilities will be attacked. This is the same play Ukraine has been using to great success on Russian energy facilities. Thursday export sales estimates 250,000 to 600,000 metric tons.
Another big volume day on the wheat chart. Funds estimated short about 46k wheat in Chicago coming into Wednesday. That number should be smaller on Thursday. RSI says overbought at 71.06. Technical factors may take a back seat as the market decides how to price in the mutual destruction of export infrastructure between the number one and number five ranked global exporters of wheat.
Joe Nikruto
Cattle slide continues on weak cash cattle prices
August live cattle futures closed down $1.30 to $230.12, while August feeder cattle rose $1.15 to $349.95. Live cattle futures fell to their lowest levels since March on Wednesday, pressured by weak cash cattle prices, technical selling, and declining wholesale beef prices. Moderate trade developed this afternoon, $8 to $10 lower at $240 to $241 FOB: a great basis for hedgers. Feeder cattle in Oklahoma City were called $15 to $20 lower, with the feeder cattle index down $2.20 to $370.32. The USDA priced choice cuts of beef on Wednesday afternoon at $371.28 per cwt, down $2.67 from Tuesday and the lowest reading since February 23.
Both live and feeder cattle remain very oversold, and the market is still waiting for a bounce after 14 trading days of lower lows and lower highs. October live cattle are only $7.50 from major long-term support, which is not far in this volatile market, while October feeder cattle are still $17 away from major long-term support.
Charlie White
WTI crude extended this week's sharp advance, with August futures settling Wednesday at 79.60, up 0.26 on the day after tagging 80.93 intraday; the September contract settled at 79.12. The rally has reclaimed the 18-day simple moving average near 72.50, yet price stalled below the 55- and 100-day averages at 84.05 and 81.81, leaving Daily RSI at a neutral 56.0. Wednesday's EIA report showed crude stocks down 1.7 million barrels to 409.7 million, roughly 6 percent under the five year average, though distillates built 4.6 million barrels. The trade keeps weighing a fresh geopolitical risk premium against OPEC+ output increases, with the next inventory print and August's approaching expiration in focus.
Equity indices went their separate ways. September E-mini S&P 500 futures settled at 7614.75, up 23.50 and holding above every major moving average with RSI near 57.0, while the September Nasdaq 100 eased 97.00 to 29693.25, slipping back beneath its 18-day average at 29866.81. June CPI, which decelerated to 3.5 percent from May's 4.2 percent, kept rate cut hopes alive as second quarter earnings season ramped up. Bank results and fresh data headline the catalysts ahead.
Dan Hussey
The extent of the heat wave in the Eastern Corn Belt is nearing its end as the weekend approaches. Rains are expected in that area starting Friday and going through the weekend. After a week of hot and dry weather, rains will be welcomed, and in some areas necessary, to maintain solid crop conditions. The Weeks 3-4 Outlook from NOAA CPC suggest a return to the dominant pattern of the summer with more normal temperatures and active rain patterns. There are some model runs starting to hint at a high pressure dome working back into the Eastern Corn Belt the first week of August, but that hasn't showed up on many expected forecasts yet.
Jason Clapp
Karen Braun’s Market Context Newsletter provides data-driven market commentary that helps readers understand the “why & how” in whatever hot topics are driving the markets.
Ted Seifried’s Daily Hotline highlights the day’s market happenings, top news, trends and what to look out for going forward.
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